Scientists from Forschungszentrum Jülich are investigating the novel coronavirus.
Together with the University of Heidelberg and the Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies (FIAS), they are developing mathematical models on the dynamics of the coronavirus outbreak in Germany. These models can be used to simulate the effect of measures intended to prevent the spread. Their aim is to predict when the outbreak will reach its peak and how many people could contract the disease.
In addition, the Jülich Supercomputing Centre together with other Gauss partners are providing the research community with computer resources, for example to simulate the effect of potential treatments.
The aim of the project is to understand and control the current pandemic as well as to contribute to preventing future pandemics.
These investigations will allow to
- predict the point in time at which the current outbreak will reach its peak in Germany and potentially in other regions
- predict the end of the current pandemic
- estimate the cumulative number of infections/deaths
These three points are considered under various scenarios in which the effectiveness of intervention measures is simulated. These measures include:
- reducing contact between people (closure of schools, introduction of home office, ...)
- early diagnosis (particularly of cases with mild symptoms) and quarantine
- improving the treatment of infected patients and increasing the capacity of intensive care units in hospitals
- easing control measures such as reintroduction of human interaction etc.
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